- Bitcoin plunged to a low of $93,029 over the weekend, wiping out its gains for 2023 but has since started a modest recovery.
- Market volatility persists despite the U.S. government reopening after a record 43-day shutdown.
- Bitcoin whales and long-term holders are selling off, adding pressure on prices during late-stage bull market behavior.
- Ethereum and Solana have also declined, reflecting broader declines across the cryptocurrency market.
- Industry analysts debate the integrity of the four-year cycle theory amidst growing institutional and regulatory support.
Market sentiment was initially optimistic following the US government’s reopening, which ended a historic shutdown of 43 days. The political and economic uncertainty, however, continues to cast a shadow on the crypto markets, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain its recent momentum.
Key events such as the escalation of tariffs and the US government shutdown have triggered multiple sharp declines, demonstrating that market confidence remains fragile. Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin’s resilience has been notable, with persistent interest from institutional investors, even as major whales have begun to sell off portions of their holdings, contributing to the recent downturn.
Bitcoin whales have also slowed price rallies
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Four-year cycle thesis still not in effect, analyst says
Debate remains among industry analysts regarding the relevance of the four-year Bitcoin cycle theory, especially as institutional support grows and regulatory frameworks evolve. While some experts, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, believe in a 2026 bull run driven by “debasement trade” fundamentals, others remain cautious.
Hougan emphasized the strength of underlying market fundamentals, suggesting that increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance (DeFi) will position the market for a substantial rebound in the coming years.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound. I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
As the crypto market navigates this turbulent phase, investors are closely watching regulatory developments, institutional moves, and macroeconomic trends that will likely shape the next bull cycle.
